According to the Hoteling-Downs model of spatial/political competition, in their quest to gain the greatest number of seats, political parties will align their party platforms to the views of the median voters. They base this theory on the assumption that each voter will vote for the candidate of party that is closest to his or her political position. Thus, to maximize their votes the candidates' and political parties' position of most utility would be that of the median voter’s.
While this theory has some merit, it has time and again been proven wrong. However, it is interesting to note that this model does play out in national races with respect to certain, highly volatile issues. The recently released Quinnipiac University Poll gave some intriguing insights into the views of the median American voter. A poll of 2,041 nationwide registered voters showed that 38% would support and 55% would oppose a state-imposed law permitting same-sex marriage. These numbers were almost reversed with 58% supporting a law allowing civil unions and 38% opposing. In a separate question, when faced with a number of choices, 33% supported same-sex marriage, 26% supported civil unions and 34% opposed any legal recognition. However, the most striking response came to the question that asked if preventing marriage for same-sex couples counted as discrimination. To this 45% responded affirmatively and 51% responded in a negative manner.
According to the latest data, almost half of America supports some form of legal recognition for same-sex couples. As such, we should see more and more politicians coming out in favor of gay rights and at the very least, civil unions. As the median voter opinion increases further in support of same-sex marriage and civil unions, as it has been the past few years, it is my hope that Congress will soon have a majority in the House and Senate that supports the legalization of civil unions and same-sex marriages. While this issue is still one delegated to the states, a majority on the Hill could result in legislation that repeals Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and other such discriminatory measures.
It is our hope that the voices of the people will reach those who have the power, both at the state and the national level, and that equality for all American citizens does not remain a dream.
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